Trump is now preparing to host Xi at the White House this week, with a high-profile welcome and state dinner. Xi is scheduled to arrive in Washington on Thursday, September 24, for talks expected to focus on trade, technology, rare earths and artificial intelligence. The visit will be the first state visit by a Chinese leader to the United States in more than a decade.
What stands out, however, is not only what Trump and Xi are expected to discuss, but the way Trump is now speaking about the Chinese leader.
Trump said this month, "He's a great gentleman; we get along great. We have a very good trading relationship and, you know, they're a competitor and all of that, but we have a very good relationship with President Xi." Trump's remarks were made ahead of Xi's September 24 visit and state dinner.
That marks a significant departure from the Trump who once presented China as a central cause of America's economic decline.
Trump's administration tightened restrictions on Chinese technology and imposed high tariffs in an effort to pressure Beijing to change its economic behaviour. China did not fold. Instead, Beijing used one of its biggest advantages — its control over critical minerals and rare earths — to push back. These materials are essential to industries ranging from electronics and electric vehicles to defence systems.
The result was not a clear US victory but a negotiation.
"Trump has dramatically shifted his approach to China because his initial attempt to use super-high tariffs and export restrictions was unsuccessful," said Michael Kovrig, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, as quoted by the Associated Press. "Xi and Trump got into a contest of leverage, and Xi came out on top."
The experience showed Trump that China could absorb economic pressure, retaliate and continue to play a major role in the global economy. That has made diplomacy increasingly difficult to avoid.
TRUMP DISCOVERED SOMETHING TARIFFS COULDN'T FIX
Trump has continued to insist that the United States holds the upper hand in the trade war. But his experience with Beijing has exposed the limits of simply increasing economic pressure.
China remains a manufacturing giant, with companies expanding into electric vehicles, batteries and other advanced industries. Chinese exports have continued to find buyers around the world.
The US-China goods trade imbalance has declined compared with the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. But that has not necessarily translated into a fundamental shift in China's manufacturing power.
US officials have also acknowledged that Chinese companies may be routing goods through countries such as Vietnam to reduce the impact of American tariffs. In other words, Trump's tariffs have changed some trade flows without removing China's role as a manufacturing powerhouse.
That leaves Trump facing a difficult reality: the country he promised to confront is also a country the United States needs to negotiate with.
XI HAS SOMETHING TRUMP WANTS
Beijing's leverage extends beyond trade. Rare earths have become one of the clearest examples.
China dominates important parts of the global supply chain for rare earth minerals and processing, which are vital to modern industries. When Beijing restricts access, manufacturers elsewhere can face pressure. China is also pushing into artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and other technologies that Washington considers strategically important.
That gives Xi a form of leverage that Trump cannot simply eliminate through tariffs: influence over industries that both countries consider critical to their economic and national security interests.
Trump has responded by seeking alternative supply chains for rare earths while also pushing the United States to accelerate AI development. He has argued that any slowdown in America's AI race could benefit Beijing.
The dispute is therefore no longer only about Chinese imports arriving at American ports. It has expanded into a contest over technologies and supply chains that could shape the next decade.
THEN THERE ARE TRUMP'S ALLIES
Another part of the equation has little to do directly with China. Trump's increasingly combative approach toward traditional US allies has complicated efforts to maintain a united front toward Beijing.
He has repeatedly clashed with European leaders, questioned aspects of NATO and engaged in trade disputes with Canada, one of America's closest economic partners.
Kovrig argues that this has created an opening for Beijing.
"He's executing Xi's wedge tactics for him, and along the way, helping Xi to tell a story about China as the more stable and responsible power," Kovrig said. "It's led to a wave of Western leaders visiting Beijing and seeking to stabilize and improve their relations with Xi so they can focus more on dealing with problems Trump is causing them."
China's strategic advantage, in this view, is not limited to any single tariff or technology. It also involves the ability to wait while America's relationships with its partners become more complicated.
Trump has long placed emphasis on personal relationships as a way to unlock deals that bureaucracy cannot. Xi has increasingly become a focus of that approach, with both leaders using warm language about their relationship.
The upcoming visit is expected to carry considerable symbolism. Trump has planned a high-profile welcome and has discussed the White House's ballroom limitations as preparations continue for the Chinese leader's visit. Trump will personally greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews, followed by a formal arrival ceremony at the White House, a military review and a state dinner.
There have already been symbolic gains. The two leaders have maintained direct engagement, while Trump can point to trade discussions and agreements as evidence that his personal approach is producing results.
But symbolism is easier than structural change. China's manufacturing strength remains intact, its technological ambitions continue, and the two countries remain engaged in competition over chips, artificial intelligence, rare earths and military technology.
WHAT DOES XI BRING TO WASHINGTON?
That is what makes the meeting more consequential than the state dinner itself.
A handshake is easy. A group photograph is easy. Even a joint statement can be easy. The difficult part is producing an outcome that changes the underlying relationship.
China is expanding its military and AI capabilities, while the Trump administration is trying to build alternative sources for rare earths and other critical materials. Washington also faces questions over China's AI ambitions and accusations that Chinese companies have used US AI models to advance their own systems.
Even on AI, however, the Trump administration has signalled that it does not view every issue through the lens of outright confrontation. Attorney General Todd Blanche said it was "unfair to just label China as a country" as being a "bad actor" on AI.
Asked whether Trump would raise the issue with Xi, Blanche said, "Those two presidents have a great relationship. ... They get along, they make deals together."
For now, Trump is testing a different approach to Beijing. The September 24 meeting will show whether the warmer tone can translate into substantive progress on trade, rare earths, artificial intelligence and the broader US-China relationship.
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